The origin of the question “The last of the urban pioneers?” came a few weeks ago as I biked down Fulton to Milano. I noticed a new sign that intrigued me.

It was in the empty lot next to Tokyo Gardens. The building that once stood there was demolished by the City of Fresno due to structural instability. The absentee owner was billed. Since then, Granville Homes purchased the site. They plan to build a mixed use development there. It a great location, next door to the iconic Tokyo Garden and near amenities such as the farmers’ market.

A preliminary design of the project was submitted for Site Plan Review with the City of Fresno on July 6th 2009. The proposal includes 4 linear buildings with exterior stairs and walkways to access 2nd and 3rd floor units. Parking is in a gated lot behind the buildings. The two buildings with Fulton frontage are anchored by commercial space on the ground floor.

While we could discuss this design in more depth there is another side of the project and Granville’s urban developments that is more intriguing. This comes from an Aggregate of what I’ve heard from associates and a conversation with Darius Assemi and Jeff Roberts when they brought a conceptual design to the Tower District Design Review Committee. They are investigating who would live downtown and how many of those people are left. It seems they are concerned that they are reaching the cap of the demographic that rents units from them at Vagabond and H Street Lofts.

A question that seems to be plaguing their minds is: are there anymore urban pioneers to rent the apartments and commercial space. With millions of dollars on the line they are rightly uncomfortable with the “if you build it, they will come” concept. They also want to know what amenities residents would want and how much they’d be willing to pay for them.

To that end Granville is gathering up input from a website and focus groups with existing Vagabond and H Street residents. Two of the residents that participated were Floyd Sanchez and Hilary Malveaux. The dialog was directed by Darius Assemi. Floyd impression of the focus group goal was to “[collect] the resident’s input on things they would like to see in a new development planned for the corner of Amador and Fulton Street.” and “They seemed receptive to specific suggestions and requests. My perception is that overall they tempered their commercial concerns with the community’s concerns well. One thing I was surprised with was the scope of their ambitions with the Amador/Fulton project (next to Tokyo Garden). They plan to do a lot with the space.”

This is further reinforced by a Fresno Bee article on July 28th that states “Almost single-handedly, Reza Assemi is rejuvenating Fresno north of Fulton Mall.” But goes on to demonstrate that downtown housing development is still a lonely path.

It’s a pretty thought, says Robin Kane, a longtime analyst of Fresno’s real estate scene. And it may unfold like that someday. But for now, he says, Uptown, even with the addition of Broadway Lofts, will remain “a niche market.”

Kane gives Assemi high marks for backbone — “he’s got the courage and innovation to do it” — and savvy — “he understands [his] market well.”

Kane says that market is in large part the younger crowd, singles or childless couples, perhaps newcomers from larger cities who yearn for a taste of what they left behind — neighborhoods near taller buildings where it’s easier to buy a painting than a lawn mower.

But, Kane says, Uptown still is too raw to lure a broad array of renters, condo-buyers and major retailers, the engine of truly dynamic inner-city redevelopment. He doesn’t explain it in so many words, but he’s talking about the middle class, that big pool of workaday folks with money and a considerable fondness for security and convenience when it comes to choosing a place to live.

For that reason, Kane says, Assemi probably is destined for a while longer to be a pioneer in Uptown development.

I drafted this post over two weeks ago. And unlike many of the other 20+ drafts I have saved, this one has become more and more relevant. With the closing of Milano on the Fulton Mall, a safe haven for Fresno Creatives for over two years, we have to question our progress. There is even the real threat of urban pioneers becoming disillusioned or even loose the faith

Downtown is not even at a point where it can support small businesses. The discussion goes back to the chicken and the egg. To live downtown, people want big city amenities. To provide big city amenities, businesses need a strong customer base. I say we need eggs by the dozen and a full hen house at the same time.

So what are your thoughts? Have we reached the cap of Downtown Pioneers willing to make sacrifices to build an urban lifestyle in Fresno? What are the hang-ups? Are there any low hanging fruit not being picked?

So readers, what is needed for you to take the plunge and move downtown? If you’re an existing resident, what will it take to keep you down there?